Kiir was “very taken with tribalism, he believes in promoting his tribe first,” Jok Madut Jok, professor of anthropology, tells Reuters. “This is a weakness for a national leader of a diverse country.”

Jok also wrote “South Sudan’s gloomy horizon,” published in Geeska. Following is an excerpt:

It has been 20 years since South Sudan’s liberation war ended in 2005, making the region autonomous for six years within Sudan. However, it has been 14 years since it became an independent country, a euphoric occasion celebrated by almost the entire world.

Yet, Africa’s newest state has remained trapped in a cycle of civil unrest and perpetual peace agreements that have not translated into real peace for its citizens. As it stands, all indications are that the fragile peace is in danger, as President Salva Kiir has ordered the house arrest of his rival, Vice President Riek Machar. His party has said the move ends the peace deal but it isn’t clear what is next.

The country embodies the classic characteristics of what conflict researchers refer to as “conflict traps”—a situation where violent political disputes become self-perpetuating, creating conditions that make it difficult to resolve these disputes, leading to cycles of violence, instability, economic collapse and poverty.