“Do Americans want a Mar-a-Lago Accord?” co-authored by Maxwell Advisory Board Professor of International Affairs Daniel McDowell, was published by the Atlantic Council.

The Mar-a-Lago Accord is “the Trump administration’s supposed plan to reorient the United States’ relationship with the global economy by negotiating sweeping changes to the international financial and trading systems. The plan centers on weakening the value of the U.S. dollar to boost U.S. exports and cut imports with the goal of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing.”

Following is an excerpt from the article:

Just days before the 2024 US presidential election, we surveyed a large, nationally representative sample of Americans. We asked them a series of questions about the dollar’s global role with the aim of better understanding how they think about their currency. Here’s what we learned. 

First, when it comes to the dollar’s value, we do not find evidence that Americans favor a devaluation. When asked if they agreed that the United States should weaken the dollar to promote exports, only 16 percent of respondents did so, compared to 42 percent who disagreed, and another 42 percent who neither agreed nor disagreed with this proposal. In sum, the public is not enthusiastic about a depreciating currency, even if that means more exports. This implies that a core component of a Mar-a-Lago Accord—a sustained weakening of the dollar—could pose political risks for Trump.

Conversely, Americans are very enthusiastic about the dollar’s international dominance. Overall, 72 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that the dollar’s global role is good for America, compared to just 6 percent who disagreed, and 22 percent who expressed neither agreement nor disagreement. Notably, this is a rare issue upon which Americans agree across the political spectrum: opinions were nearly identical among those who voted for Trump and those who did not. 

Relatedly, a clear majority of Americans in our survey also expressed concern about the prospect of the dollar losing its preeminent status in the future. When asked if they are concerned that other countries are trying to shift away from the dollar, a clear majority (65 percent) agreed. Indeed, it is the president’s own supporters who are most worried about this possibility, with 76 percent of Trump voters expressing concern about a loss of status for the dollar compared to 58 percent of individuals that did not vote for Trump.

Taken together, these numbers suggest that Americans of all political persuasions like their dollar to be strong and value its prominence in the world. Thus, pursuing dollar depreciation within the framework of a Mar-a-Lago Accord is a potentially risky path for the Trump administration, especially if it triggers fears about a loss of status for the United States’ currency.