Democrats in New York state are banking on state Sen. John Mannion to flip the 22nd Congressional District, making him a key part of the party’s strategy to take back control of the House of Representatives. He faces Rep. Brandon Williams, the Republican incumbent.

The district covers Onondaga and Madison counties, as well as parts of Cayuga, Cortland and Oneida counties, including the cities of Syracuse and Utica. 

Grant Reeher, professor of political science, tells the Associated Press that NY-22 is a “fundamentally moderate district,” even though on paper it looks like it should favor Democrats. 

“In some ways, you almost have two generic candidates running, one more conservative and one sort of more mainstream. And you’ve got a district that just seems more built for people who are closer to the center, in either party,” he says.

In the City & State article, “Can John Mannion flip a key upstate swing district?” Reeher says, “We’re getting into really subjective territory here, but no one who I’ve ever talked to about John Mannion says, ‘What a charismatic guy,’” adding that Williams “is not particularly charismatic either.”

In the Spectrum News article, “House control could run through NY-22, where Mannion is challenging Williams,” Reeher says Williams is especially vulnerable as a one-term congressman, and the race could come down to if voters feel he is a good fit in “purple” NY-22.

Reeher argues that Williams may be too far right, and doesn’t have as high of a profile in the district or major legislative accomplishments to point to as the area’s former moderate Republican Rep. John Katko.

“He is more conservative and doesn’t have the bills passed, and does not have the activity level in Washington or the District,” he says.