Catholic voters are a key constituency that candidates are seeking to win in 2024, as surveys and analysts indicate they are on track to be closely divided at the polls. 

Catholic voters as a whole have varied in recent presidential elections about which party most of them choose to support. For example, data from the Pew Research Center found that most Catholic voters supported former President Donald Trump in 2016, but more Catholics voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.

“We know that Catholics are probably as divided as the rest of the electorate right now,” Margaret Susan Thompson, associate professor of history and political science, tells the Catholic Standard. “The election is extremely close by almost any standard and Catholics seem to be in many ways mirroring the American population in that regard,” she says.

Thompson was also quoted in the NorthJersey.com article, “Which religious groups back Trump and Harris? Shifting loyalties could swing the election.”

Catholics, who have supported Republican candidates in overwhelming numbers in the past, may be more split this year, particularly following Pope Francis' cryptic advice in September to choose the “lesser of two evils.”

Thompson interprets the Pope's statement as offering Catholics permission to vote for Harris. "He was saying to vote in a way that takes your religious convictions into account, and that may vary from person to person," she says, adding that the Catholic vote has grown less distinct from the general population in recent years.