Maxwell School News and Commentary

"The problem of private warfare is control and accountability. And you have very little of it, especially in a conflict zone. So right now, we have the problem—well, Putin has a problem, is he can give amnesty temporarily to Wagner Group and to Prigozhin," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"I think Putin emerges from this significantly weakened," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science. "I think if you're a member of the Russian elite or are in fact a member of the Russian population, you're going to look at this and think, 'Wow, a private army just drove on Moscow for most of the day. No one stopped them and they're allowed to leave and no real consequences.'"

"He’s [Prigozhin] clearly trying to draw a sharp contrast between his presence directly on the battlefield, his engagement with his soldiers, and the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, which he frequently attacks as being out of touch elitists who are damaging the war effort," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

The visibility of losing their flagship for an entire fleet inevitably attracted attention, says retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs. It proved that any and all Russian vessels approaching Ukraine's littoral waters were under threat, he adds.

“Wagner was a very useful stopgap in that period between when [Russia] had so many of their regular forces attrited and Putin came around to the realization that he had no choice but to bring in hundreds of thousands of more people. That may, in some sense, prove to be that Wagner is at its sort of height of influence,” says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

"Most of the old guard have sought to remain in places like Mali, or in Africa, away from the Ukraine fight, because the guys I talked to before the invasion were not supportive of the invasion," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"Putin’s War of Recolonization," co-authored by Maxwell professors Renée de Nevers and Brian Taylor, was published in the Journal of Democracy.

The Moscow summit has the effect of underscoring and reinforcing the status of “Russia as a junior partner with China—economically, militarily and diplomatically,” Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, tells the Associated Press.

"There's an ongoing public split between Wagner and the Russian military, and both sides are looking for symbolic wins," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"Putin has always known that NATO poses no credible security threat to Russia itself. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO’s force posture and the U.S. military presence in Europe have greatly declined, reducing any potential military threat to Russia. What really scares the Russian elite is the spread of democracy," argues Michael John Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.