No matter the victor of the November 2024 presidential election, one thing is certain: Russia’s war against Ukraine will continue to grind on, presenting a challenge for both the departing administration and its successor.

Since the start of Russia’s large-scale invasion, the Biden Administration has been a stalwart, if perhaps overly cautious, supporter of Ukraine.

Although it has repeatedly emphasized support for a Ukrainian victory, the administration’s policy has been largely shaped by developments on the battlefield and constrained by fears of Russia using weapons of mass destruction if pushed too far.

But how might a new administration’s policy differ from Biden’s? And how will other key participants in the war adapt their policies and strategies based on their expectations of what a Harris or Trump policy towards Ukraine might look like?

In an effort to think through the implications of the two possible election outcomes, the Carnegie-Maxwell Policy Planning Lab conducted a strategic-level political-military wargame during a three-day retreat in the Adirondack Mountains of New York.

Participants included current and former government officials from the US and allied countries, academics, and members of the think-tank and NGO community.

We provide a recounting of the game so that the reader may draw their own conclusions. We end this report with a distillation of the wargame’s key takeaways.