Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal, Ryan Monarch

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2025

Ryan Monarch

Economics Department

Trade, Development, and Political Economy Working Group

International Affairs

Taxation

Trade

United States

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Ryan Monarch

We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firmtrade linked data, we identify exporters importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product level exposure to import tariffs.

We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of 2% to 4%.