De Nevers Piece on Trump’s Second Term and America’s Future Role in NATO Published in The Hill

December 2, 2024

The Hill

Renée de Nevers

Political Science Department

Public Administration & International Affairs Department

Program for the Advancement of Research on Conflict & Collaboration

Conflict

Europe

Federal

Global Governance

Renée de Nevers

“Trump’s second term could test Europe’s nuclear temptations,” written by Renée de Nevers, associate professor of public administration and international affairs, was published in The Hill. Following is an excerpt:

“Trump’s return to power in the U.S. raises serious questions about America’s future role in NATO. He has been open in his disdain for NATO for decades, saying that as far as he is concerned Russia ‘can do whatever the hell it wants’ toward alliance members who don’t pay what he considers their share of alliance defense costs. During his previous term as president, Trump discussed wanting to leave the alliance, only to be talked out of it by his advisors.

This leaves European NATO with a serious security problem at a time when the threat to Europe from Russia is clear and present. Many European members have increased their defense spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with 23 countries now spending at the NATO target of two percent or more of their GDP on defense in 2024.

However, building up the conventional military capabilities needed to respond to a Russian attack without U.S. assistance will take time and unity of purpose, neither of which European NATO has.

NATO’s security during the Cold War depended on the U.S. nuclear guarantee. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, most observers hoped and believed that the need for such a nuclear deterrent had declined. That is no longer the case.”