Midterm elections are one month away and strategists and political observers on both sides of the aisle are bracing for an October surprise, wary of anything that could upend the political landscape and reshape the outcome of an already volatile midterm cycle. 

But even with the electorate as polarized as it currently is, last-minute scandals and controversies aren’t meaningless, says Shana Gadarian, Merle Goldberg Fabian Professor of Excellence in Citizenship and Critical Thinking. While many of the most partisan voters have been tuned in to the midterm elections for months, there are still other voters who are just starting to pay attention and haven’t yet decided how to cast their ballots.

“There is still some component of the electorate that, as partisan and polarized as we are, doesn’t know who they’re going to vote for until the end and makes up their minds based on what they learn—things that are front of mind in the closing weeks of the campaign,” she says.