Gadarian Weighs In on How Heat May Impact Upcoming Elections in Nonprofit Quarterly Article

August 14, 2024

The Nonprofit Quarterly

Shana Kushner Gadarian

Political Science Department

Campbell Public Affairs Institute

Lerner Center for Public Health Promotion and Population Health

Climate Change

U.S. Elections

United States

The Nonprofit Quarterly

Shana Kushner Gadarian

A 2017 study that analyzed state-level data from the U.S. presidential elections established that temperature changes can impact election results and revealed two possibilities. Another study in 2024 found that rising temperatures can also dictate political preferences.

Regarding the upcoming U.S. elections, Shana Gadarian, professor of political science and associate dean for research, notes that while rising temperatures may not shape vote choice directly in the United States this year, they will likely increase the salience of climate as an issue.

“This will especially be the case for candidates on the left, where voters name the environment and climate as issues they care about, and where President Joe Biden has a record of policy achievements on climate, including the Inflation Reduction Act,” Gadarian says.

In the future, extreme heat could also affect voter turnout, Gadarian adds. “We know that any barriers to voting—long lines, bad weather, voter registration rules, voter identification rules—can drive down turnout, particularly for those who are not habitual voters, young people, people who work hourly jobs, the disabled. So, heat could be another one of those barriers that keep people [away] who are more vulnerable.”

Read more in the Nonprofit Quarterly article, “How Rising Temperatures May Affect Future Elections.”