Maxwell School News and Commentary

“If I were a Democratic consultant or strategist, I would be taking a huge grain of salt before I base my playbook on this election,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

"It's hurt the general population's views of him, but it's fueled and strengthened his base, and even driven some Republicans on the fence to 'stay loyal' to the cause," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. "Trump has been trying to wear these legal troubles as a badge of honor for his victimization, and of his commitment to his supporters."

The Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship (IDJC) is launching The Deciders Focus Groups project, a partnership initiative looking to gain insights from key voting blocs in 2024 presidential election battleground states. NBC News plans to report findings each month.

"Smoother, more refined, younger, better informed on the issues, but still aggressive on policy and willing to fight the cultural battles the Right seems to care about. Is that enough to persuade a loyal Republican voter, who is weighing that against a proven battler? Apparently not," says Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

"Doing well in New Hampshire or doing better than expected can give campaign attention and a sense of momentum that will bring new media attention as well as donations and support from party members in states that come later in the process," says Shana Gadarian, associate dean for research and professor of political science.

“The party didn’t coalesce around one alternative to Trump, and that’s what the skeptics needed,” says Shana Gadarian, associate dean for research and professor of political science.

Grant Reeher, professor of political science, tells Newsweek that Trump will continue to use his legal difficulties to rile up his MAGA base. However, Reeher adds that it remains to be seen if this will ultimately damage Trump's White House ambitions.

“The independents that are part of the polling…don’t like either of them. And then, of course the Democrats in the polls are not going to give Trump any positive ratings, and Republicans are not going to give Biden any positive ratings,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science.

"Having the turnover in the organization that he's had is nowhere near the chaos that the disrupter in chief caused both as a candidate and as president," Grant Reeher, professor of political science, says of DeSantis's aim to be a drama-free Trump. "So in that sense, then that claim is still reasonably valid. I don't know what it gets him."

“Some of these polls are really in a way approval ratings of President Biden, which we know are not great,” says Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute. “So it’s not so much people saying I’d rather have Donald Trump than Joe Biden, it’s people saying I’m not happy with where the country is going, and I want an alternative.”